This site hosts some technical notes on work in progress, for a study on "Missed Detections: From Data to Actionable Estimates.. The project is funded by the Borders, Trade and Immigration Institute (BTI) at the University of Houston. The Principal Investigators area Paul B. Kantor, Dennis E. Egan, and Fred S. Roberts. For additional information please contact any of us using the information on our web sites.

Acknowledgment and Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security under Grant Award Number 2015-ST-061-BSH Subcontract: R-17-0050 The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

Reports will be made available here as the project continues.

Social Science Perspectives

Several of the project reports focus on whether social science can tell us something useful about the probability that specific classes of persons are deterred by the application of specific measures (called "consequences"). Our research has yielded some indication of the potential of these approaches, and an overview of diverse data sources.

Report on Deterrence: Summary and Sources. Lead Author, Dennis E. Egan

Report on Selected Data Sources. Lead Author, Dennis E. Egan

Mathematical Models for Extended Capture-Recapture (ECR)

Other reports examine some novel models that seek to combine available information, which may come from apprehension and re-capture records, from expert assessment, or from computer simulations. The relevant reports are listed below.

Report on Aggregating Imperfect Estimates of several key variables. Lead Author, Paul B. Kantor. March 29, 2018.

Estimating Missed Detections by Combining Diverse 1 Sources: Algorithms
Missed Detections Working Report-002
. Authors: Vladimir Menkov & Paul B. Kantor. July 1, 2018

Estimating Missed Detections: A\Two Types" Model. Missed Detections Working Report ECR-003 Authors: Paul B. Kantor and Vladimir Menkov. June 30, 2018

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)

The project also began exploration of whether the techniques of DEA might provide an alternative to conventional econometric analysis in estimating the impact of specific resources on the security of the border. DEA is distinguished from more conventional methods by its ability to account for important variations in context and constraints, among the several parts of the border security overall effort.

White paper on the potential of Data Envelopment Analysis as a tool for assessing the impact of specific resources, on border security. Author, Paul B. Kantor, June 27, 2018.

Project Software

Software developed in this project has been delivered to the Borders and Trade Institute at the University of Houston. The link below permits access to some documentation available online. To run the software online, some password access is necessary. As means for access are developed, this site will be updated.

Aggregation of experts

Software documentation